A hurricane's path is quite easy to forecast, but its intensity is not. A new model, which takes into account the interaction of the storm and ocean-surface temperature, gives remarkably accurate retrospective simulations.
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Unexpected limitation of tropical cyclone genesis by subsurface tropical central-north Pacific during El Niño
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Willoughby, H. Hurricane heat engines. Nature 401, 649–650 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/44287
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/44287
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