Nature 319, 109 - 115 (09 January 1986); doi:10.1038/319109a0

Future global warming from atmospheric trace gases

Robert E. Dickinson & Ralph J. Cicerone

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA

Human activity this century has increased the concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, which in turn has elevated global surface temperatures by blocking the escape of thermal infrared radiation. Natural climate variations are masking this temperature increase, but further additions of trace gases during the next 65 years could double or even quadruple the present effects, causing the global average temperature to rise by at least 1 °C and possibly by more than 5 °C. If the rise continues into the twenty-second century, the global average temperature may reach higher values than have occurred in the past 10 million years.

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