Research Highlights

Nature Reports Climate Change
Published online: 12 June 2008 | doi:10.1038/climate.2008.56

Shaky ground

Alicia Newton

Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L10703 (2008)

USGS

Warming may eventually destabilize massive frozen carbon reserves trapped in the east Siberian permafrost, but not for centuries, finds a new study. Frozen reserves constitute over 60 per cent of the carbon stored in soils globally, and their escape to the atmosphere could have a considerable effect on future climate.

Dmitry Khvorostyanov at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, France, and colleagues used model simulations of permafrost to assess the potential future release of the frozen carbon in east Siberia. They found that the rate of warming is a key factor affecting the destabilization of the carbon stores. If the temperature rises 3 °C per century in northeastern Siberia, the stores there will be mobilized by AD 2300.

Faster warming could lead to an earlier release, however. Once the process has begun, it is irreversible. The authors estimate that up to 75 per cent of the initial carbon store could enter the atmosphere within 50 to 100 years of the deposits being destabilized.