Epidemiology

BJC Open article

British Journal of Cancer (2011) 105, 1795–1803. doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.430 www.bjcancer.com
Published online 27 October 2011

Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030

M Mistry1, D M Parkin1, A S Ahmad1 and P Sasieni1

1Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts & The London School of Medicine & Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK

Correspondence: Professor P Sasieni, E-mail: p.sasieni@qmul.ac.uk

Received 21 June 2011; Revised 12 September 2011; Accepted 16 September 2011
Advance online publication 27 October 2011

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Abstract

Background:

  

Projections of cancer incidence are important for planning health services and to provide a baseline for assessing the impact of public health interventions.

Methods:

  

Rates estimated from smooth function age–period–cohort modelling of cancer incidence data from Great Britain 1975 to 2007 are extrapolated to 2030 and applied to UK population projections. Prostate and breast cancer projections take into account the effect of screening.

Results:

  

Overall rates of cancer are projected to be stable over the next 20 years, but this masks individual changes. In both sexes, age-standardised rates of cancers of the stomach, larynx, bladder and leukaemia are projected to fall by greater than or equal to1% per year, whereas cancers of the lip, mouth and pharynx (ICD-10 C00-C14) and melanoma are projected to increase by greater than or equal to1% per year. The growing and aging populations will have a substantial impact: numbers of cancers in men and women are projected to increase by 55% (from 149169 to 231026) and 35% (from 148716 to 200929), respectively, between 2007 and 2030. The model used yields similar results to those of Nordpred, but is more flexible.

Conclusion:

  

Without new initiatives for smoking and obesity reduction, the number of cancers in the United Kingdom will increase substantially reflecting the growing and aging populations.

Keywords:

incidence; projections; age–period–cohort models; splines; cancer registration