Table 1: Measured and modeled mass balances for the Cook Ice Cap for different periods since the 1960s and at the end of the 21st century.

From: Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean

Table 1: Measured and modeled mass balances for the Cook Ice Cap for different periods since the 1960s and at the end of the 21st century.
Time periodPast and present climateFuture climate
1958–631963–20002000–102090–99
Measured MB −1.33 ± 0.90−1.59 ± 0.19i 
Modelled MB (m we a−1)−0.01 ± 0.24ii−1.12 ± 0.39iii−1.62 ± 0.33iv 
Modelled MB without warmingv  −1.15 ± 0.33iv 
Modelled MB without dryingvi  0.07 ± 0.33iv 
Modelled MB without drying nor warming  0.58 ± 0.33iv 
Mean multi-model MB (CMIP5)−0.05 ± 0.24ii−0.18 ± 0.39iii −0.87vii/−10.6viii
  1. iVolumetric mass balance from February 15, 2000, to February 15, 2010. Mass balance from December 15, 2009, to February 15, 2010 was computed with the PDD model and summed to the volumetric mass balance from remote sensing data to obtain the CIC mass balance for exactly ten mass balance years.
  2. iiUncertainty is the standard deviation of mass balance values of 1000 simulations assuming Gaussian distribution around the optimized degree day factors (see Methods).
  3. iiiMean glacier-wide specific mass balance is the average of values obtained with extents and elevations from years 1963 and 2000 respectively. The uncertainty is the half-difference between minimum and maximum values summed to the model uncertainty described in ii. The modelled mass balance is from February 15, 1963 to February 15, 2000.
  4. ivSame as iii but with extents and elevations from years 2000 and 2009 respectively. The modelled mass balance is from February 15, 2000, to February 15, 2010.
  5. vTemperature in the 1950s is reported to every following decade, whereas observed precipitation is used.
  6. viPrecipitation in the 1950s is reported to every following decade, whereas observed temperature is used.
  7. viiIn this experiment, precipitation from the 2000s progressively increases and reaches values from the 1950s in 2100, i.e. twice the precipitation amount compared to today. This assumes a higher increase in precipitation than that suggested by CMIP5 models. Warming is given by the mean trend in CMIP5 models for the RCP2.6 scenario. This represents the expected least negative mass balance situation. Mean glacier-wide specific mass balance assumes surface area and elevation from 2009.
  8. viiiSame as vii but warming is from RCP8.5 scenario.