Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 687–690 (2016)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Chinese coal consumption dropped 2.9% in 2014 according to preliminary official statistics1 released in 2015. This was hailed as historic after China’s meteoric growth in the 2000s2. The International Energy Agency used it to estimate ∼1.5% reduction in Chinese fossil CO2 emissions for 20143, and an unprecedented 0.2% reduction in global emissions4. Similar preliminary coal consumption statistics are announced every year, and will be watched closely after China’s recent slowdown in emissions growth and pledge to peak emissions in 2030 or earlier. However, Chinese energy statistics are frequently revised and often contain large anomalies5,6, implying high uncertainty. For example, BP used different Chinese data to estimate a 0.9% increase in 2014 CO2 emissions7,8. Here, we analyse these preliminary announcements, with an approach that can be used to assess the robustness of similar future announcements. We show that the preliminary 2.9% reduction in coal consumption is inappropriate for estimating CO2 emissions, that coal-derived energy consumption stayed flat but is likely to have decreased in 2015, and that Chinese fossil CO2 emissions probably increased ∼0.8% in 2014. We also analyse recent revisions of official energy statistics, and find that they imply 925 MtCO2 (11.2%) higher emissions for 2013, and 7.6 GtCO2 (9.2%) higher total emissions for 2000–2013.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Comparison of growth rates for different measures of coal use.
Figure 2: Revisions of coal use in National Economic Censuses (NECs).
Figure 3: Discrepancies in national and provincial coal consumption statistics.
Figure 4: Growth rates in total coal-derived energy use and correlated economic quantities.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. National Bureau of Statistics of China Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development (China Statistics Press, 2015); http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html

  2. Green, F. & Stern, N. China’s ‘New Normal’: Better Growth, Better Climate (ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2015); http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Green-and-Stern-policy-paper-March-2015a.pdf

  3. Energy and Climate Change. World Energy Outlook Special Report (International Energy Agency, 2015); http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/weo-2015-special-report-energy-climate-change.html

  4. World Energy Outlook 2015 (International Energy Agency, 2015); http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org

  5. Guan, D., Liu, Z., Geng, Y., Lindner, S. & Hubacek, K. The gigatonne gap in China’s carbon dioxide inventories. Nature Clim. Change 2, 672–675 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Ma, B., Song, G., Zhang, L. & Sonnenfeld, D. A. Explaining sectoral discrepancies between national and provincial statistics in China. China Econ. Rev. 30, 353–369 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 (BP, 2015); https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2015/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-full-report.pdf

  8. National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015 China Statistical Abstract (2015中国统计摘要) (China Statistics Press, 2015).

  9. Wang, Y. & Chandler, W. Understanding energy intensity data in China (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011); http://carnegieendowment.org/files/chinese_energy_intensity.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  10. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Yearbook 2015 (China Statistics Press, 2015).

  11. Garg, A., Kazunari, K. & Pulles, T. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesCh. 1Vol. 2 (IPCC, 2006); http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/2_Volume2/V2_1_Ch1_Introduction.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  12. Liu, Z. et al. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. Nature 524, 335–338 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Le Quéré, C. et al. Global Carbon Budget 2015. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 7, 349–396 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. National Bureau of Statistics of China Plan for the Third National Economic Census (第三次经济普查方案) (China Statistics Press, 2013); http://www.stats.gov.cn/ztjc/zdtjgz/zgjjpc/dscjjpc/pcfa/201311/t20131113_480779.htm

  15. National Bureau of Statistics of China Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2013 National Economic and Social Development (China Statistics Press, 2014); http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201402/t20140224_515103.html

  16. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014 (China Statistics Press, 2015).

  17. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Yearbook 2014 (China Statistics Press, 2014); http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2014/indexeh.htm

  18. Teng, F. Carbon: resolve ambiguities in China’s emissions. Nature 525, 455 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Teng, F. & Zhu, S. Which estimation is more accurate? A technical comments on Nature Paper by Liu et al on overestimation of China’s emission. (谁的估计更准确?评论Nature发表的中国CO2排放重估的论文). Sci. Technol. Rev. 33, 112–116 (2015); http://www.kjdb.org/EN/abstract/abstract13182.shtml

    Google Scholar 

  20. Brandt, L., Van Biesebroeck, J. & Zhang, Y. Challenges of working with the Chinese NBS firm-level data. China Econ. Rev. 30, 339–352 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2013 (China Statistics Press, 2014).

  22. National Bureau of Statistics of China Energy Statistics (常见问题解答: 7.能源统计) (China Statistics Press, 2013); http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjzs/cjwtjd/201311/t20131105_455940.html

  23. IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (International Energy Agency, 2015); http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00510-en

  24. Coal Economic Operations Information September 2015 (煤炭经济运行信息资料 - 2015年9月) (China Coal Industry Association, 2015); http://www.chinacoal.gov.cn/templet/3/ShowArticle.jsp?id=75142

  25. National Bureau of Statistics of China Value-added of industry above designated limit grew by 5.7% in September 2015 (2015年9月份规模以上工业增加值增长5.7%) (China Statistics Press, 2015); http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201510/t20151019_1257777.html

  26. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Communiqués (统计公报) (China Statistics Press, 2016); http://data.stats.gov.cn/publish.htm?sort=1

  27. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2009–2012 editions) (China Statistics Press).

  28. Fridley, D., Romankiewicz, J. & Fino-Chen, C. China Energy Databook (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2013); https://china.lbl.gov/research-projects/china-energy-databook

    Google Scholar 

  29. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Yearbook 2004 (China Statistics Press, 2004); http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2010/indexeh.htm

  30. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2009 (China Statistics Press, 2010).

  31. China’s Major Imports by Quantity and RMB Value, September 2015 (2015年9月全国进口重点商品量值表 (人民币值)) (General Administration of Customs People’s Republic of China, 2015); http://www.customs.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab49666/info774876.htm

  32. China’s Major Exports by Quantity and RMB Value, September 2015 (2015年9月全国出口重点商品量值表 (人民币值))(General Administration of Customs People’s Republic of China, 2015); http://www.customs.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab49666/info762376.htm

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was conducted as part of the TransChina project (no. 235523) under the KLIMAFORSK programme funded by the Norwegian Research Council. We thank J. Xue, B. Meng and the research group of Q. Zhang for helpful information on data sources and revisions of Chinese energy statistics. We also thank D. Fridley for providing previous versions of the China Energy Databook, and T. Wei for help with accessing various past editions of the China Energy Statistical Yearbooks.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO), Pb 1129 Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway

    Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters & Robbie M. Andrew

Authors
  1. Jan Ivar Korsbakken
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Glen P. Peters
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Robbie M. Andrew
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

J.I.K. and G.P.P. designed the research. J.I.K. obtained data and carried out analyses. R.M.A. assisted in obtaining and processing data. All authors contributed to writing the article.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jan Ivar Korsbakken.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Korsbakken, J., Peters, G. & Andrew, R. Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions. Nature Clim Change 6, 687–690 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2963

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2963

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene