Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

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Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades1. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone2. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

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E.J.S. and D.P.S. were supported by the US National Science Foundation, grant numbers OPP-0440414 and OPP-0126161, as part of the US ITASE programme. M.E.M. was supported by the US National Science Foundation, grant number OPP-0125670. We thank D. Winebrenner, A. Monaghan, D. Bromwich, J. Turner, P. Mayewski, T. Scambos, E. Bard and O. Bellier.

Author Contributions E.J.S., D.P.S., S.D.R. and M.E.M. made the reconstruction and statistical calculations. J.C.C. performed the cloud-masking calculations and provided the updated satellite data set. D.T.S. provided the general circulation model output and guided its interpretation. E.J.S. wrote the paper. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

Author information


  1. Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA

    • Eric J. Steig
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA

    • David P. Schneider
  3. Department of Environmental Science, Roger Williams University, Bristol, Rhode Island, USA

    • Scott D. Rutherford
  4. Department of Meteorology, and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA

    • Michael E. Mann
  5. NASA Laboratory for Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA

    • Josefino C. Comiso
  6. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10025, USA

    • Drew T. Shindell


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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Eric J. Steig.

Supplementary information

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    Supplementary Information

    This file contains Supplementary Data, Supplementary Figures S1-S1 with Legends and Supplementary Tables S1-S2


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