Declining incidence is greater for esophageal than gastric cancer in Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Abstract

Temporal trends in the incidence of esophageal and gastric cancers during 1972 to 1989 were addressed in urban Shanghai, the location of China's longest standing cancer registry. Over the 18 year study period, esophageal cancer rates decreased more than 50% from 28.8/100,000 person-years in 1972-74 to 13.3/100,000 in 1987-89 among men and from 11.3/100,000 to 5.4/100,000 among women. Reductions were apparent in each age group, but most pronounced among younger generations, with more than a 75% decline in incidence among those under age 55 years. The incidence rate for stomach cancer among men decreased 20% from 62.0/100,000 in 1972-74 to 50.1/100,000 in 1987-89. The reduction among women, however, was minor, from 23.9/100,000 to 23.2/100,000. The patterns varied by age, with declines among persons 45-64 years and increases among those in older and younger age groups. The determinants of these trends are not clear, but appear related in part to dietary changes.