Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

Nature volume 413, pages 417–420 (2001)Cite this article

Abstract

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates1,2, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability3. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton4,5, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Annual variation in the percentage of colour-ringed adult fulmars that were observed at the colony during each breeding season in relation to the annual North Atlantic Oscillation index for that summer.
Figure 2: Variation in annual values for hatching success and fledging success in relation to the NAO index for the winter before the breeding season.
Figure 3: The recruitment rate for different cohorts of chicks from the study colony was significantly related to anomolies in Northern Hemisphere growing season temperatures during the cohort year of birth (1958–80).
Figure 4: Variations in the number of fulmars breeding on Eynhallow.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Post, E., Peterson, R. O., Stenseth, N. C. & McLaren, B. E. Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate. Nature 401, 905–907 (1999).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Milner, J. M., Elston, D. A. & Albon, S. D. Estimating the contributions of population density and climatic fluctuations to interannual variation in survival of Soay sheep. J. Anim. Ecol. 68, 1235–1247 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Sæter, B.-E. et al. Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird. Science 287, 854–856 (2000).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Planque, B. & Taylor, A. H. Long-term changes in zooplankton and the climate of the North Atlantic. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 55, 644–654 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. O'Brien, C. M., Fox, C. J., Planque, B. & Casey, J. Climate variability and North Sea cod. Nature 404, 142 (2000).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Lloyd, C., Tasker, M. L. & Partridge, K. The Status of Seabirds in Britain and Ireland (T & A. D. Poyser, London, 1991).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Fisher, J. The Fulmar (Collins, London, 1952).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Salomonsen, F. The geographical variation of the fulmar (Fulmaris glacialis) and the zones of marine environment in the North Atlantic. Auk 82, 327–355 (1965).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Brown, R. G. B. Fulmar distribution: a Canadian perspective. Ibis 112, 44–51 (1970).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Wynne-Edwards, V. Animal Dispersion in Relation to Social Behaviour (Oliver & Boyd, Edinburgh, 1962).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Kitaysky, A. S. & Golubova, E. G. Climate change causes contrasting trends in reproductive performance of planktivorous and piscivorous alcids. J. Anim. Ecol. 69, 248–262 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Post, E. & Stenseth, N. Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology 80, 1322–1339 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Gaillard, J.-M., Festa-Bianchet, M. & Yoccoz, N. G. Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends Ecol. Evol. 13, 58–63 (1998).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Ollason, J. C. & Dunnet, G. M. in Reproductive Studies of Individual Breeding Systems (ed. Clutton-Brock, T. C.) 263–278 (Univ. Chicago Press, Chicago, 1988).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Dunnet, G. M. Population studies of the Fulmar on Eynhallow, Orkney Islands. Ibis 133, 24–27 (1991).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Mougin, J. L., Jouanin, C. & Roux, F. Intermittent breeding in Cory's Shearwater Calonectris diomedea of Selvagem Grande, North Atlantic. Ibis 139, 40–44 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Bradley, J. S., Wooller, R. D. & Skira, I. J. Intermittent breeding in the short-tailed shearwater Puffinus tenuirostris. J. Anim. Ecol. 69, 639–650 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Furness, R. W. & Bryant, D. M. Effect of wind on field metabolic rates of breeding Northern Fulmars. Ecology 77, 1181–1188 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Wilby, R. L., O'Hare, G. & Barnsley, N. The North Atlantic Oscillation and British Isles climate variability, 1965–1996. Weather 52, 266–276 (1997).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Phillips, R. A. et al. Diet of the northern fulmar Fulmar glacialis; reliance on commercial fisheries? Mar. Biol. 135, 159–170 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Schweingruber, F. H. & Osborn, T. J. Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature 393, 450–455 (1998).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Cooper, C. F. & Stewart, B. S. Demography of Northern elephant seals, 1911–1982. Science 219, 969–971 (1983).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Pomeroy, P. P., Twiss, S. D. & Duck, C. D. Expansion of a grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) breeding colony: changes in pupping site use at the Isle of May, Scotland. J. Zool. 250, 1–12 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Dunnet, G. M., Ollason, J. C. & Anderson, A. A 28-year study of breeding Fulmars Fulmaris glacialis in Orkney. Ibis 121, 293–300 (1979).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Dunnet, G. M. & Anderson, A. A method of sexing living Fulmars in the hand. Bird Study 8, 119–126 (1961).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Hurrell, J. W. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269, 676–679 (1995).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Ollason, J. C. & Dunnet, G. M. Nest failures in the Fulmar: the effect of observers. J. Field Ornithol. 51, 39–54 (1980).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are indebted to the late G. Dunnet, who developed and directed the long-term field study on which these findings are based. Thanks also to A. Anderson, P. Heppleston, P. Doyle, P. Cosgrove and many other colleagues who assisted with data collection and analyses; and to S. D. Albon, P. F. Billingsley, J. W. Durban, D. A. Elston, M. L. Gorman, X. Lambin, J. G. Ollason and W. R. Turrell for advice and discussion. Orkney Islands Council and the late J. M. Robertson kindly provided access to facilities on Eynhallow.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Janet C. Ollason

    Present address: Nether Ardgrain, Ellon, Aberdeenshire, AB41 8RA, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Zoology, University of Aberdeen, Lighthouse Field Station, Ross-shire, Cromarty, IV11 8YJ, UK

    Paul M. Thompson

  2. Department of Zoology, University of Aberdeen, Culterty Field Station, Newburgh, Aberdeenshire, Ellon, AB41 6AA, UK

    Janet C. Ollason

Authors
  1. Paul M. Thompson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Janet C. Ollason
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paul M. Thompson.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Thompson, P., Ollason, J. Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics. Nature 413, 417–420 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35096558

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/35096558

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing