Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer

Nature volume 411, pages 180–183 (2001)Cite this article

Abstract

Stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases1,2,3,4,5. The 1999 Hector Mine earthquake in southern California (magnitude 7.1) occurred only 20 km from, and 7 years after, the 1992 Landers earthquake (magnitude 7.3). This suggests that the Hector Mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event. But uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the Landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre—with estimates varying from -1.4 bar (ref. 6) to +0.5 bar (ref. 7). More importantly, coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events. Here we present the results of a three-dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the Landers earthquake. Using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the Landers earthquake, our calculations suggest that lower-crustal or upper-mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1–2 bar at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre during this time period, contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. These results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard8,9,10,11.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Correspondence between observed aftershocks and calculated coseismic changes in Coulomb stress associated with the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence.
Figure 2: Viscoelastic finite-element model used to calculate coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes associated with the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence.
Figure 3: Calculated coseismic and postseismic changes in Coulomb stress associated with the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence.
Figure 4: Calculated Coulomb stress changes at the Hector Mine hypocentre as a function of year and assumed friction.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Stein, R. S., King, G. C. P. & Lin, J. Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 Landers earthquake. Science 258, 1328–1332 (1992).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. King, G. C. P., Stein, R. S. & Lin, J. Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 935–953 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Deng, J. & Sykes, L. R. Triggering of 1812 Santa Barbara earthquake by a great San Andreas shock: Implications for future seismic hazards in southern California. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1155–1158 (1996).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Harris, R. A., Simpson, R. W. & Reasenberg, P. A. Influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern California. Nature 375, 221–224 (1995).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Stein, R. S. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. Nature 402, 605–609 (1999).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and California Division of Mines and Geology. Preliminary report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake. Seismol. Res. Lett. 71, 11–23 (2000).

  7. Parsons, T. & Dreger, D. S. Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 1949–1952 (2000).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Pollitz, F. F. & Sacks, I. S. Consequences of stress changes following the 1891 Nobi earthquake, Japan. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 796–807 (1995).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Pollitz, F. F. & Sacks, I. S. The 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake: A long-delayed aftershock of the offshore 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, 1–10 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Freed, A. M. & Lin, J. Time-dependent changes in failure stress following thrust earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24393–24409 (1998).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Deng, J., Hudnut, K., Gurnis, M. & Hauksson, E. Stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 3209–3212 (1999).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Stein, R. S. & Lisowski, M. The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, California: Control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 6477–6490 (1983).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Oppenheimer, D. H., Reasonberg, P. A. & Simpson, R. W. Fault plane solutions for the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake sequence: Evidence for the state of stress on the Calavares fault. J. Geophys. Res. 93, 9007–9026 (1988).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Reasenberg, P. A. & Simpson, R. W. Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earthquake. Science 255, 1687–1690 (1992).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Reasonberg, P. A. & Dieterich, J. H. Stress transferred by the M w = 6.5 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 24543–24565 (1998).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Stein, R. S., King, G. C. P. & Lin, J. Stress triggering of the 1994 M = 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake by its predecessors. Science 265, 1432–1435 (1994).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Jaume, S. C. & Sykes, L. R. Evolution of moderate seismicity in the San Francisco Bay region, 1850 to 1993: seismicity changes related to the occurrence of large and great earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 765–789 (1996).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Shen, Z. et al. Postseismic deformation following the Landers earthquake, California, 28 June 1992. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 780–791 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Massonnet, D., Thatcher, W. & Vadon, H. Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake. Nature 382, 612–616 (1996).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Savage, J. C. & Svarc, J. L. Postseismic deformation associated with the 1992 M w = 7.3 Landers earthquake, Southern California. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 7565–7577 (1997).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Jackson, D. D., Shen, Z. K., Potter, D., Ge, X. B. & Sung, L. Y. Geoscience: Southern California deformation. Science 277, 1621–1622 (1997).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Bock, Y. et al. Southern California permanent GPS geodetic array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 18013–18033 (1997).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  23. Peltzer, G., Rosen, P., Rogez, F. & Hudnut, K. Poro-elastic rebound along the Landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 30131–30145 (1998).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  24. Ivins, E. R. Transient creep of a composite lower crust, 2. A polymineralic basis for rapidly evolving postseismic deformation modes. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 28005–28028 (1996).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Deng, J., Gurnis, M., Kanamori, H. & Hauksson, E. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust after the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake. Science 282, 1689–1692 (1998).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Pollitz, F. F., Peltzer, G. & Bürgmann, R. Mobility of continental mantle: Evidence from postseismic geodetic observations following the 1992 Landers earthquake. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 8035–8054 (2000).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  27. Kirby, S. H. & Kronenberg, A. K. Rheology of the lithosphere: Selected topics. Rev. Geophys. 25, 1219–1244 (1987).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Hauksson, E., Jones, L. M., Hutton, K. & Eberhart-Phillips, D. The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence: Seismological observations. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 19835–19858, (1993).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  29. Wald, D. J. & Heaton, T. H. Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1992 Landers, California, Earthquake. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 668–691 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Dreger, D. & Kaverina, A. Seismic remote sensing for the earthquake source process and near source strong shaking: A case study of the October 16, 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 1941–1944 (2000).

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank S. Sacks for discussions and S. Keiser for computer support. This research was supported by a NSF post-doctoral fellowship and the Southern California Earthquake Center.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 20015, Washington DC, USA

    Andrew M. Freed

  2. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, 02543, Massachusetts, USA

    Jian Lin

Authors
  1. Andrew M. Freed
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jian Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew M. Freed.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Freed, A., Lin, J. Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer. Nature 411, 180–183 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1038/35075548

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/35075548

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing