Multiple Discriminant Screening Procedure for Test Ban Verification

Abstract

A DECADE of research has led to a well defined capability for the seismological method of verification of compliance with a ban on underground nuclear explosions. Whatever political form the treaty will eventually have, it is generally agreed that decisions concerning violations will be national decisions. Recent presentations to the Conference of the Committee on Disarmament in Geneva^1–4 lead us to consider in some detail utilisation of the seismological discrimination experience in a national operational verification procedure. The thrust of the sample operational procedure to be described depends on an acceptance of the fact that detailed consideration of clandestine explosions, or evasion tactics in general, is futile until all natural seismic activity can be identified down to the required seismic magnitude or equivalent explosion yield. Thus, the operational procedure becomes an earthquake screening process that can be tested in simulation in advance of the Test Ban Treaty.