Featured
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Article |
Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022
Analysis of more than 236,000 observations of glacier terminus positions shows that accelerated calving reduced the ice area of Greenland by about 5,000 km2 since 1985, producing over 1,000 Gt of freshwater that could influence ocean salinity and circulation.
- Chad A. Greene
- , Alex S. Gardner
- & Joshua K. Cuzzone
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming
Analysis of climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings shows that the frequency of consecutive La Niña events will increase, driven by ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that slow the heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific.
- Tao Geng
- , Fan Jia
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article |
Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater
Simulations show that projected increases in Antarctic meltwater will slow down the abyssal ocean overturning circulation over the coming decades and lead to warming and ageing of the ocean abyss.
- Qian Li
- , Matthew H. England
- & Adele K. Morrison
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Article
| Open AccessRegime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness
A simple model describes the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening, shows how reduced residence time affects changes in ice thickness and highlights the enduring impact of climate change on the Arctic Ocean.
- Hiroshi Sumata
- , Laura de Steur
- & Sebastian Gerland
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Article
| Open AccessSuppressed basal melting in the eastern Thwaites Glacier grounding zone
Despite observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole showing warm ocean waters beneath Thwaites Glacier Eastern Ice Shelf, the basal melt rate is strongly suppressed due to the low current speeds and strong density stratification.
- Peter E. D. Davis
- , Keith W. Nicholls
- & Keith Makinson
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Article
| Open AccessHeterogeneous melting near the Thwaites Glacier grounding line
Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf observations from a new underwater vehicle show that high melt rates occur where ice is sharply sloped at the ocean interface, with lower melt where the ice is comparatively flat.
- B. E. Schmidt
- , P. Washam
- & K. Makinson
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: Concerns about data linking delta land gain to human action
- J. H. Nienhuis
- , A. D. Ashton
- & T. E. Törnqvist
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Article |
Ocean currents show global intensification of weak tropical cyclones
Both drifter current observations and satellite-based tropical cyclone (TC)-induced sea surface cooling demonstrate that weak TCs have intensified in recent decades.
- Guihua Wang
- , Lingwei Wu
- & Shang-Ping Xie
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Article |
Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning
Data from multiple satellite sensors show that Antarctica lost almost 37,000 km2 of ice-shelf area from 1997 to 2021, and that calving losses are as important as ice-shelf thinning.
- Chad A. Greene
- , Alex S. Gardner
- & Alexander D. Fraser
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves
Climate forecast systems are used to develop and evaluate global predictions of marine heatwaves (MHWs), highlighting the feasibility of predicting MHWs and providing a foundation for operational MHW forecasts to support climate adaptation and resilience.
- Michael G. Jacox
- , Michael A. Alexander
- & Desiree Tommasi
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Article |
Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise
Analysis of tide gauge observations shows that, in contrast to the current assumption of stationary storm surge extremes in Europe, the surge contribution to changes in extreme sea levels since 1960 is similar to that of sea-level rise, influencing future coastal planning.
- Francisco M. Calafat
- , Thomas Wahl
- & Sarah N. Sparrow
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Article |
Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970
A study uses a temperature-percentile water mass framework to analyse warm-to-cold poleward transport of freshwater in the Earth system, and establishes a constraint to help address biases in climate models.
- Taimoor Sohail
- , Jan D. Zika
- & John A. Church
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Article |
Pliocene decoupling of equatorial Pacific temperature and pH gradients
New proxy data for ocean pH and an ocean–atmosphere model show that a radically different ocean circulation led to decoupling of ocean productivity and upwelling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean 3–6 million years ago.
- Madison G. Shankle
- , Natalie J. Burls
- & Pincelli M. Hull
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Article |
Summertime increases in upper-ocean stratification and mixed-layer depth
Oceanographic observations from 1970–2018 reveal substantial changes in the summer upper-ocean structure, showing a thickening of the mixed layer and a density gradient increase at its base.
- Jean-Baptiste Sallée
- , Violaine Pellichero
- & Mikael Kuusela
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Article |
Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming
Modelling experiments show that the El Niño response to global warming is self-modulating and depends on its historical variability; if current variability is high, future variability will be low.
- Wenju Cai
- , Benjamin Ng
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article |
The causes of sea-level rise since 1900
Observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 is reconciled with estimates based on the contributing processes, revealing budget closure within uncertainties and showing ice-mass loss from glaciers as a dominant contributor.
- Thomas Frederikse
- , Felix Landerer
- & Yun-Hao Wu
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Article |
Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes
A linear relationship between the storage of heat and carbon in global oceans in response to anthropogenic emissions is used to reconstruct the effect of circulation changes on past and future ocean warming patterns.
- Ben Bronselaer
- & Laure Zanna
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Article |
Thermal displacement by marine heatwaves
Ocean heatwaves displace surface isotherms by tens to thousands of kilometres—comparable to shifts associated with long-term warming trends—potentially driving rapid redistributions of marine species.
- Michael G. Jacox
- , Michael A. Alexander
- & James D. Scott
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Article |
Ice front blocking of ocean heat transport to an Antarctic ice shelf
The front of the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica creates an abrupt topographic step that deflects ocean currents, suppressing 70% of the heat delivery to the ice sheet.
- A. K. Wåhlin
- , N. Steiger
- & S. Viboud
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Article |
Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain
A global study of river deltas shows a net increase in delta area by about 54 km2 yr−1 over the past 30 years, in part due to deforestation-induced sediment delivery increase.
- J. H. Nienhuis
- , A. D. Ashton
- & T. E. Törnqvist
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Letter |
Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth
Using phreatic overgrowths on speleothems, sea level during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was about two to three degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period, is shown to have been about 16 metres higher than today.
- Oana A. Dumitru
- , Jacqueline Austermann
- & Bogdan P. Onac
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Letter |
Correcting datasets leads to more homogeneous early-twentieth-century sea surface warming
Correction of oddities in the historical record of sea surface temperatures reveals that some basin-wide climate variations were an artefact of systematic biases that stem, in part, from Japanese records being truncated to whole numbers when the records were digitized.
- Duo Chan
- , Elizabeth C. Kent
- & Peter Huybers
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Article |
Antarctic offshore polynyas linked to Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies
Measurements collected during recent polynya events in the Southern Ocean reveal that these sea ice openings formed as a result of weakened stratification and severe storms and were sustained by deep overturning.
- Ethan C. Campbell
- , Earle A. Wilson
- & Lynne D. Talley
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Letter |
Origin of spatial variation in US East Coast sea-level trends during 1900–2017
Vertical motions of Earth’s crust had the greatest effect on regional spatial differences in relative sea-level trends along the eastern coast of the USA during 1900–2017, explaining most of the large-scale spatial variance in regional rates of sea-level rise.
- Christopher G. Piecuch
- , Peter Huybers
- & Martin P. Tingley
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Article |
Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming
Despite inter-model differences in predicting the details of the eastern Pacific El Niño, a robust increase in the corresponding sea surface temperature variability under greenhouse warming is found across models.
- Wenju Cai
- , Guojian Wang
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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Article |
Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater
Accounting for meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet in simulations of global climate leads to substantial changes in future climate projections and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.
- Ben Bronselaer
- , Michael Winton
- & Joellen L. Russell
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Letter |
Marine heatwaves under global warming
Satellite observations and Earth system model simulations reveal that marine heatwaves have increased in recent decades and will increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent.
- Thomas L. Frölicher
- , Erich M. Fischer
- & Nicolas Gruber
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Review Article |
El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity
Our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is reviewed and a unifying framework that identifies the key factors for this complexity is proposed.
- Axel Timmermann
- , Soon-Il An
- & Xuebin Zhang
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Letter |
Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation
In preindustrial times, a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation led to cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, but now it is predicted to cause accelerated global surface warming.
- Xianyao Chen
- & Ka-Kit Tung
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Review Article |
The global influence of localized dynamics in the Southern Ocean
- Stephen R. Rintoul
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Review Article |
Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere
This paper discusses how Antarctic ice has changed over recent decades, and how these changes have been recorded in satellite observations.
- Andrew Shepherd
- , Helen Amanda Fricker
- & Sinead Louise Farrell
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Article |
Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell
Less sea ice allowed ocean swells to flex weakened ice shelves in Antarctica, contributing to their collapse.
- Robert A. Massom
- , Theodore A. Scambos
- & Sharon E. Stammerjohn
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Letter |
Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years
Palaeoclimate records show that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakened substantially at the end of the Little Ice Age, probably in response to enhanced freshwater fluxes from the Arctic and Nordic seas.
- David J. R. Thornalley
- , Delia W. Oppo
- & Lloyd D. Keigwin
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Article |
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
A characteristic ‘fingerprint’ of sea-surface temperatures suggests that the Atlantic overturning circulation has slowed substantially since the mid-twentieth century, as predicted by climate models in response to increasing carbon dioxide emissions.
- L. Caesar
- , S. Rahmstorf
- & V. Saba
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Letter |
Meridional overturning circulation conveys fast acidification to the deep Atlantic Ocean
There has been about a forty per cent reduction in the transport of carbonate ions to the deep North Atlantic Ocean since preindustrial times, severely endangering cold-water corals.
- Fiz F. Perez
- , Marcos Fontela
- & Xose A. Padin
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Letter |
Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography
An Antarctic ice core reveals that, during the last ice age, the topography of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets shifted tropical Pacific convection eastward, increasing climate variability in the high southern latitudes.
- T. R. Jones
- , W. H. G. Roberts
- & J. W. C. White
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Article |
Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition
Noble gases trapped in ice cores are used to show that the mean global ocean temperature increased by 2.6 degrees Celsius over the last glacial transition and is closely correlated with Antarctic temperature.
- Bernhard Bereiter
- , Sarah Shackleton
- & Jeff Severinghaus
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Article |
Abyssal ocean overturning shaped by seafloor distribution
The geometry of the ocean floor sets key regime transitions in the circulation of deep ocean waters.
- C. de Lavergne
- , G. Madec
- & T. J. McDougall
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Letter |
Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades
The oxygen content of the global ocean has decreased by more than two per cent over the past five decades, with large variations found in different ocean basins and at different ocean depths.
- Sunke Schmidtko
- , Lothar Stramma
- & Martin Visbeck
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Letter |
Vigorous lateral export of the meltwater outflow from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf
The mechanism producing Antarctic meltwater at depth is elucidated and modelled.
- Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
- , Alexander Forryan
- & Satoshi Kimura
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Letter |
Broadening not strengthening of the Agulhas Current since the early 1990s
The Agulhas Current has not intensified since the early 1990s, but has instead broadened as a result of more eddy activity.
- Lisa M. Beal
- & Shane Elipot
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Letter |
Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends
Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the northward transport of sea ice from Antarctica can explain the bulk of the observed freshening in the Southern Ocean.
- F. Alexander Haumann
- , Nicolas Gruber
- & Stefan Kern
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Letter |
Western boundary currents regulated by interaction between ocean eddies and the atmosphere
In coupled climate model simulations the strength of major oceanic fronts associated with western boundary currents—tremendous conveyors of ocean heat towards the poles—is systematically underestimated, but this can be addressed by resolving not only ocean mesoscale eddies but, more importantly, their feedback with the atmosphere.
- Xiaohui Ma
- , Zhao Jing
- & Lixin Wu
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Brief Communications Arising |
El Niño and intense tropical cyclones
- Il-Ju Moon
- , Sung-Hun Kim
- & Chunzai Wang
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Letter |
Onset of Antarctic Circumpolar Current 30 million years ago as Tasmanian Gateway aligned with westerlies
Neodymium isotopes from fossil fish teeth and tectonic reconstructions show that the deep Tasmanian Gateway opened up about 33 million years ago and that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current arose 30 million years ago, when the gateway probably moved into the latitudes of the strong westerly winds.
- Howie D. Scher
- , Joanne M. Whittaker
- & Margaret L. Delaney
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Review Article |
Pacific western boundary currents and their roles in climate
A review of western boundary currents in the Pacific Ocean explores their far-reaching influence on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Indonesian Throughflow, Asian monsoons, and ocean circulation in the South China Sea, and concludes that major conceptual and technical progress will be needed to close the regional mass budget and provide robust projections of Pacific western boundary currents in a changing climate.
- Dunxin Hu
- , Lixin Wu
- & William S. Kessler
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Letter |
Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations
The circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, interpreted via the sea level gradient along the US coast, is found to respond to atmospheric drivers from the North Atlantic Oscillation, and in turn influences the oceanic temperature changes characterized by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; in this way, ocean circulation acts as the intermediary between atmospheric and ocean oscillations.
- Gerard D. McCarthy
- , Ivan D. Haigh
- & David A. Smeed
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Letter |
The formation and fate of internal waves in the South China Sea
Internal oceanic waves are subsurface gravity waves that can be enormous and travel thousands of kilometres before breaking but they are difficult to study; here observations of such waves in the South China Sea reveal their formation mechanism, extreme turbulence, relationship to the Kuroshio Current and energy budget.
- Matthew H. Alford
- , Thomas Peacock
- & Tswen-Yung (David) Tang