Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Research Briefing
  • Published:

Small-scale decentralized ammonia production could become cost-competitive by 2030

With centralized production, the price of ammonia-based fertilizers is affected by the volatility of the fossil fuel market, complex supply chains and long-distance transportation costs. Now, an analysis of the cost-competitiveness of decentralized low-carbon ammonia production suggests that a substantial fraction of the global ammonia demand could be cost-competitively supplied by small-scale technologies by 2030.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Cost-competitiveness of decentralized ammonia production.

References

  1. Rosa, L. & Gabrielli, P. Energy and food security implications of transitioning synthetic nitrogen fertilizers to net-zero emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 014008 (2023). This article analyses the nitrogen demand for crop production and its link with the global trade of natural gas.

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Smith, C., Hill, A. K. & Torrente-Murciano, L. Current and future role of Haber–Bosch ammonia in a carbon-free energy landscape. Energy Environ. Sci. 13, 331–344 (2020). This article analyses the current Haber–Bosch technology and potential alternatives based on a techno-economic point of view.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Gao, Y. & Cabrera Serrenho, A. Greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogen fertilizers could be reduced by up to one-fifth of current levels by 2050 with combined interventions. Nat. Food 4, 170–178 (2023). This article maps the greenhouse gas emissions from across the life cycle of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Srivastava, N. et al. Prospects of solar-powered nitrogenous fertilizers. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 187, 113691 (2023). A review article that analyses three main pathways for renewable-based fertilizer production and highlights the impact of transport costs on fertilizer prices at the demand point.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Comer, B. M. et al. Prospects and challenges for solar fertilizers. Joule 3, 1578–1605 (2019). A review article that highlights the advantages of the decentralized, solar-based production of fertilizers.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Hunter, J. D. Matplotlib: a 2D graphics environment. Comput. Sci. Eng. 9, 90–95 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Jordahl, K. et al. geopandas/geopandas: v0.8.1. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3946761 (2020).

Download references

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This is a summary of: Tonelli, D. et al. Cost-competitive decentralized ammonia fertilizer production can increase food security. Nat. Food https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-00979-y (2024).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Small-scale decentralized ammonia production could become cost-competitive by 2030. Nat Food (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-00991-2

Download citation

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-00991-2

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene